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Model Drift

Model drift occurs when the data an AI system encounters in production begins to differ from the data it was trained on—causing a gradual or sudden decline in performance. Drift can affect accuracy, reliability, and even the fairness or safety of decisions. It’s a natural consequence of deploying machine learning models in dynamic environments.

There are several types of model drift:

  • Data drift (covariate shift): The input data distribution changes over time (e.g., seasonal trends, new product categories, shifting user behavior).
  • Concept drift: The relationship between inputs and outputs changes, even if the data distribution remains the same (e.g., fraud tactics evolve while transaction patterns remain similar).
  • Label drift: The meaning or distribution of output labels changes (e.g., redefining what counts as “churn”).

Drift is not always easy to detect. Models may continue to run without errors while their outputs become less accurate or relevant. In regulated or high-impact environments, this silent degradation can lead to costly mistakes or compliance violations.

Organizations must implement mechanisms for continuous monitoring of model performance, as well as automated triggers for alerts, retraining, or rollback when drift is detected. Human oversight is also key, particularly when models impact financial, legal, or ethical outcomes.

Addressing drift requires both technical tools and operational readiness. It’s not enough to train a model well once—it must be maintained, evaluated, and governed throughout its lifecycle.

How PointGuard AI Addresses This:
PointGuard AI can continuously test deployed models with adversarial input which ensures models stay aligned with accuracy, compliance, and business value over time.

Resources:

NIST AI Risk Management Frameworks (RMF)

IBM: What is Model Drift?

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